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Recent proposed tariff plans – notably the 25% duty on imported steel and aluminum have drawn close attention in the trucking industry. These tariffs aimed to protect U.S. metal producers, but they also raised input costs for manufacturers that rely on steel and aluminum. Semi-truck production is especially affected, as each Class 8 truck contains thousands of pounds of steel and aluminum. Below we analyze how such tariffs could influence manufacturing costs, truck prices, and sales trends in both the short and long term, incorporating reactions from truck makers, fleet operators, and industry analysts.

Higher Manufacturing Costs and Material Prices

Tariffs on steel and aluminum increase manufacturing costs for heavy trucks. When the U.S. applied broad metal import tariffs in 2018, domestic steel prices climbed sharply, putting downstream manufacturers at a disadvantage. Truck builders like Freightliner, Peterbilt, and Volvo suddenly faced pricier raw materials for frames, cabs, engines, and trailers. According to PACCAR’s trade analysis, the immediate result of the 25% steel tariff was higher market prices for steel and aluminum, making it “most likely” that trucks will become more expensive as manufacturers pass along these costs. In fact, analysts noted that even if an OEM sources mainly domestic metal, U.S. mills raised prices due to reduced import competition – effectively forcing truck makers to pay more across the board.

Manufacturers have limited ability to absorb such cost increases, so they must either accept lower profit margins or raise vehicle prices. Many have opted to adjust supply chains or negotiate with suppliers. For example, automakers like Ford shifted toward domestic steel sources (over 90% domestic in Ford’s case) to mitigate tariff exposure. However, domestic supplies were not immune to price hikes. Industry groups pointed out that the U.S. cannot instantly produce enough steel/aluminum to meet demand, so shortages and rising input costs were inevitable. In summary, Trump’s metal tariffs quickly drove up raw material costs for truck manufacturing, creating inflationary pressure on new equipment prices.

Rising Truck Prices and Fleet Responses

As material costs rose, new truck prices began climbing. Analysts at ACT Research projected that across-the-board tariffs on North American trade partners would raise U.S. Class 8 truck prices by 8% to 10% on average.  In extreme cases, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) warned that a 25% tariff on Mexican-built trucks (Mexico is a major production hub for tractors) could drive up the price of a new truck by as much as $35,000. Such a spike would be “cost-prohibitive for many small carriers”, ATA President Chris Spear noted, and would add tens of millions in costs annually for large fleets.

Truck manufacturers initially tried to manage costs internally, but sustained tariffs left little choice but to adjust pricing. Some OEMs added steel surcharges or announced price increases to their dealer networks to offset higher input expenses (industry reports in 2018 noted trailer manufacturers were seeing up to 5% cost increases from the tariffs, which would be passed on to buyers). These rising prices prompted mixed responses from trucking companies:

• Pre-buying and Advance Orders: Facing imminent price hikes, some fleets accelerated purchases in the short term. For instance, towards the end of 2024 (when new tariffs were being discussed again), North American fleets placed a surge of truck orders, partly to lock in current prices before tariffs and new emissions rules took effect. Analysts reported an unusually strong December order volume, suggesting buyers were trying to get ahead of expected cost increases.
• Delayed Purchases: Conversely, other carriers hit pause on new equipment orders amid the uncertainty. In early 2025, as tariff threats loomed, Class 8 orders dropped well below normal levels – down ~34% year-over-year in February, according to FTR – which analysts attributed to policy uncertainty and tariff fears making businesses hesitant to invest. This reflects a wait-and-see approach: fleets didn’t want to overpay for trucks if there was a chance trade tensions might ease, but they also didn’t want to buy too late and get caught by higher prices.
• Leasing and Used Trucks: Higher new truck prices also made used trucks and leasing options more attractive. Small operators in particular, who often operate on thin margins, might retain older trucks longer or turn to the secondary market rather than paying a premium for new models. Indeed, used truck sales saw a late-2024 jump, and analysts suggested it was because buyers were timing purchases ahead of “impending value increases” in new trucks. If tariffs remained, the ripple effect would likely raise used truck values (since new equipment costs more) and potentially extend the trade-in cycles for fleets.

Conclusion

Tariff policies on steel, aluminum, and imported goods injected both higher costs and greater uncertainty into the semi-truck market. In the short term, those tariffs drove up the cost to build each truck – by anywhere from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands in extreme cases – leading manufacturers to raise prices and some fleets to rush purchases before increases hit. At the same time, retaliatory moves and higher consumer prices slowed trade flows, threatening freight demand and new truck orders (Tariffs will have ‘direct and disproportionate’ effect on truckers, industry warns | Trucking Dive). In the longer term, the industry could adapt by altering supply chains (sourcing more domestically or shifting production) and adjusting fleet renewal strategies, but not without friction. Both trucking companies and truck builders voiced concern that these tariffs, if prolonged, would act as a drag on sales and profitability. As a result, industry analysts largely concur that while some of the tariff’s pain can be managed, the net effect is a headwind for truck sales and production: higher truck prices, squeezed margins, and potentially fewer trucks sold than in a free-trade environment. The consensus from manufacturers, carriers, and analysts is that stability and open trade are more conducive to a strong trucking market – and that prolonged trade wars create challenges that could reverberate through the trucking industry for years to come.  But for now you can pick up pre-tariff, 2025 inventory to avoid this price increases. 

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